Betting on underdogs can be a rewarding strategy for sports bettors who know how to identify value and leverage opportunities others might overlook. While underdogs are often seen as riskier bets, they can provide excellent returns when approached strategically. This guide will show you how to bet on underdogs with confidence and maximize your chances of winning.
Why Bet on Underdogs?
Underdogs often come with longer odds, meaning higher potential payouts. Additionally, sportsbooks and the betting public tend to overvalue favorites, creating opportunities for sharp bettors to find value in underdog bets.
Benefits of Betting on Underdogs:
- Higher Payouts: Even a modest bet can yield substantial returns.
- Overlooked Value: The public’s bias toward favorites often inflates underdog odds.
- Market Inefficiencies: Underdogs are more likely to be mispriced, especially in certain situations.
How to Identify Valuable Underdog Bets
Not all underdogs are worth betting on. Follow these tips to spot the best opportunities:
1. Analyze the Matchup
Look beyond the odds and evaluate the matchup:
- Team Strengths and Weaknesses: Does the underdog have specific advantages (e.g., defense, coaching)?
- Recent Performance: Are they on a winning streak or improving despite past losses?
- Head-to-Head History: How has the underdog performed against this opponent in the past?
2. Consider External Factors
Underdogs can benefit from situational factors, such as:
- Injuries to Favorites: Key injuries can weaken the favored team.
- Travel and Scheduling: Long road trips or back-to-back games can affect performance.
- Weather Conditions: In outdoor sports, weather can level the playing field.
3. Look for Public Bias
The betting public often overestimates favorites and underestimates underdogs, especially in:
- High-Profile Games: Popular teams draw heavy betting, inflating their odds.
- Primetime Matchups: Public perception can overshadow actual performance.
Tip:
Check public betting percentages to see where the majority of money is going. Fading the public can reveal underdog value.
4. Shop for the Best Odds
Odds for underdogs can vary significantly across sportsbooks. Use odds comparison tools to ensure you’re getting the best value.
- Example: One sportsbook might offer +150 while another offers +170. Always take the higher odds to maximize potential profits.
Situations Where Betting on Underdogs Works Best
Certain scenarios make underdogs more likely to outperform expectations. Focus on:
1. Divisional or Rivalry Games
In rivalry games, underdogs often play with extra motivation, closing the gap in talent or skill.
2. Early in the Season
Sportsbooks and bettors rely on limited data at the start of a season, making it easier to find mispriced underdogs.
3. Teams with Momentum
Underdogs on a winning streak or with recent strong performances may carry that momentum into the next game.
4. Live Betting Opportunities
Live betting allows you to take advantage of in-game developments that favor the underdog, such as a fast start or unexpected injuries to the favorite.
Bankroll Management for Betting on Underdogs
Since underdogs inherently come with more risk, managing your bankroll is critical:
- Bet Smaller Percentages: Limit your stake to 1-2% of your bankroll per underdog bet.
- Diversify Bets: Avoid placing all your bets on long-shot underdogs. Balance them with safer wagers.
- Track Results: Keep detailed records of your underdog bets to identify trends and refine your strategy.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
1. Blindly Betting on Underdogs
Not every underdog offers value. Avoid betting purely based on the potential payout without proper analysis.
2. Ignoring Research
Relying on gut feelings or hype instead of data and trends can lead to poor decisions.
3. Betting Too Many Underdogs
Focus on quality over quantity. It’s better to identify a few strong underdog plays than to spread your bets thin.
Final Thoughts
Betting on underdogs can be both exciting and profitable when approached strategically. By analyzing matchups, identifying public biases, and managing your bankroll effectively, you can turn underdog bets into a key part of your sports betting strategy. Remember, success comes from consistent research and disciplined betting, not blind luck. Embrace the underdog mindset and enjoy the thrill of spotting value where others don’t.