When placing a bet, one of the first decisions you’ll face is whether to back the favorite or take a chance on the underdog. Favorites are expected to win, while underdogs carry higher potential payouts but lower probabilities of success. Each option has its merits, and understanding when to bet on favorites versus underdogs can elevate your sports betting strategy. Let’s break it down.
1. Betting on Favorites: Pros and Cons
Favorites are the teams or players expected to win, and sportsbooks assign them lower odds to reflect their higher probability of success.
Pros:
- Higher Probability of Winning: Favorites are statistically more likely to win.
- Lower Risk: While no bet is guaranteed, favorites tend to be more predictable.
- Consistency: Backing favorites can lead to smaller but more frequent wins.
Cons:
- Lower Payouts: Because the odds are shorter, potential profits are smaller.
- Overvalued Odds: Public betting heavily on favorites can skew the odds, reducing value.
- Upset Risk: Even the strongest teams can lose unexpectedly, which can be costly for bettors.
2. Betting on Underdogs: Pros and Cons
Underdogs are less likely to win, but their odds reflect higher payouts if they pull off an upset.
Pros:
- Higher Payouts: The potential returns for underdog bets are significantly greater.
- Value Opportunities: Sportsbooks may undervalue certain underdogs, creating profitable scenarios.
- Excitement: Rooting for an underdog can make the betting experience more thrilling.
Cons:
- Lower Win Probability: Underdogs lose more often than they win, so frequent losses are likely.
- Inconsistency: Betting on underdogs requires a higher tolerance for risk and volatility.
3. Factors to Consider When Choosing Favorites or Underdogs
To make smarter decisions, evaluate these factors before placing your bet:
- Matchup Analysis: Study the strengths and weaknesses of each team or player.
- Recent Form: Look at performance trends, including injuries, momentum, and home/away records.
- Odds Value: Compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to find the best value for your bet.
- Betting Context: Consider the sport, league, or specific event. For example:
- In NFL games, underdogs often perform well against the spread.
- In tennis, favorites in early rounds of tournaments are generally reliable.
4. When to Bet on Favorites
Favorites are often the better choice in these scenarios:
- Dominant Teams/Players: A clearly superior favorite facing a weaker opponent.
- Consistent Performers: Teams with reliable records and few surprises.
- Lower Odds, Higher Confidence: When the odds still offer reasonable value despite being short.
5. When to Bet on Underdogs
Underdogs can be a smart choice under the right conditions:
- Potential for Upsets: When a heavily favored team is under pressure or facing key injuries.
- Mispriced Odds: Situations where the underdog’s chances are better than the odds suggest.
- Against the Public: When the majority of bets are on the favorite, creating more value on the underdog.
6. Balancing Favorites and Underdogs in Your Strategy
An effective betting strategy often involves a mix of favorites and underdogs. Consider these approaches:
- Parlays with Favorites: Combine several favorites in a single parlay for potentially higher payouts.
- Value Betting on Underdogs: Identify underdogs with undervalued odds to maximize returns.
- Betting Against the Spread (ATS): Instead of focusing on the outright winner, bet on whether a team will cover the point spread.
Final Thoughts
The decision to bet on favorites or underdogs depends on your risk tolerance, research, and betting strategy. Favorites offer consistency and reliability, while underdogs provide excitement and the chance for higher payouts. By analyzing matchups, understanding odds, and balancing your bets, you can make smarter decisions and enjoy a more rewarding betting experience.
Relevant Links/Sources:
- Betting on Underdogs: https://www.smartbetting.com
- Understanding Moneyline Odds: https://www.bettingsites.org.uk